Environmental Talk

Is DaVinci painting a self-portrait? Or a picture of a man on a mule?

Jim O’Brien is the smartest guy I ever met. He has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Yale and is an amazing software designer. It was from Jim that I first heard the phrase: “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.”

I suppose this means we should have a Geneva Convention for data, but failing that, it’s a good saying to remember when both sides of the climate change debate look at the same data and come up with different conclusions.

The following chart is from a study by Robert-Muir Wood, Stuart Miller and Auguste Boissonade attempting to discover whether evidence supports the conclusion that damage from extreme weather events has increased over the past 50 years. The graph shows normalized damages in U.S. dollars for “tropical cyclone, flood (storm surge and inland) and across all weather related perils.”

What do you see?

If you look at the chart since the 1980s, there would appear to be a slight uptrend in extreme weather events with a spike in the last few years.

If you look at the chart since the 1950s, there is no discernible trend, with the exception of the recent spike to new highs.

So, what conclusion do you draw? If you believe that man-made global warming is responsible for more extreme weather events, you focus on the more recent data and ignore the fact that, while economic losses have risen in the U.S., they’ve actually decreased in many other parts of the world. You’d also want to ignore what the study authors note is a tendency to include more items in what is defined as “economic loss.” Specifically, losses associated with the 2004 tsunami in Indonesia include “an estimated $1.53 billion USD for initial reduction in economic activity” - a factor not included in previous events.

If you believe that anthropogenic global warming has not contributed to an uptick in extreme weather events, you might take a longer view of the data stretching back to 1950. Plus, you’d want to note that the data would appear to be biased upward by the aforementioned “broader definition” bias as well as a U.S.-centric bias that was exacerbated by losses associated with Hurricane Katrina.

The study’s authors are well-aware of how the Katrina numbers bias their conclusions and are careful not to read too much into the data.

Unfortunately, mainstream media outlets have little time for such subtleties and will tend to publish what they see are the “conclusions” reached by the study’s authors but which more accurately reflect the biases of the reporter or publisher.

In the end, it’s not just the data that suffers - it’s all of us.

global warming, climate change, Katrina, extreme weather, Robert-Muir Wood, Stuart Miller, Auguste Boissonade

It’s pretty much been a silent spring (oh, the environmental irony!) for those global warming proponents who like to cite any hot or dry weather as evidence that global warming is upon us and climate change is real.

I’m not saying it’s right, but in what we’ll call our Sauce for the Goose segment, we’ve collected some of the recent headlines about the weather.

You’ll want to refer back to them this summer when it once again becomes vogue to blame every hot summer day, brush fire or menopausal flush on global warming.

SAUCE FOR THE GOOSE . . .

Alaska bitter cold freezes sea otters out of bay causing early deaths…
From the April 09, 2007 12:42:15 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Cold Snap Postpones Spring Festivities…
From the April 09, 2007 01:24:22 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Record-Shattering Cold Threatens Crops…
From the April 07, 2007 19:32:02 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Easter Bunny Bundles Up: Unusually Cold Just About Everywhere…
From the April 06, 2007 12:25:16 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Near-record cold, snow in Alaska…
From the April 05, 2007 12:41:28 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

ICE, WIND, COLD… PARADE!
From the March 18, 2007 01:58:48 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Expedition highlighting global warming called off due to extreme cold…
From the March 12, 2007 22:34:14 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Record cold of minus 35 degrees registered at Watertown NY Airport…
From the March 06, 2007 07:01:02 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Brutal Cold Returning To The Northeast…
From the March 04, 2007 19:46:44 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Early flurry of killer tornadoes linked to cold winter…
From the March 03, 2007 14:41:37 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

Cambodians Ponder An Unfamiliar Concept: Cold…
From the February 07, 2007 00:07:02 GMT edition of the Drudge Report.

global warming, climate change, Katrina, extreme weather, blizzard, cold weather, baseball, Easter bunny

I get it. Everybody “spins” and both sides of the global warming debate are guilty of cherry-picking facts that support their version of the story.

I also get that, when you’re trying to attract publicity, Media Training For Dummies suggests it is often helpful to make outrageous claims in order to attract attention - as anyone who has followed Ann Coulter’s career can attest.

The problem is that once you’ve attracted attention, people start to focus on what you’re saying a little closer. If you continue to make outrageous claims, those claims tend to be seen for what they are - attempts at grandstanding with little substance to back them up.

The Dick Cheneys and Bill O’Reillys and the Howard Deans and Barbra Streisands of the world will always have their hard-core fans. And when you get together at your rallies, or call-in shows, or concerts, all I ask is that you take a minute to consider how ridiculous you look to the rest of us that realize that you really don’t walk on water.

I know you may believe that by saying something fervently or repetitively enough that it will be accepted as fact but I reserve the right to turn down the Kool-Aid when it’s offered to me.

Al Gore has done a masterful job of bringing the climate change debate to the forefront of world consciousness. Now that you’ve got my attention, I need a little more solid information to come to a rational decision on the issue. Additional rhetoric, at this point, only serves to raise a red flag in my mind that you’re trying to pull something over on all of us.

All of which is by way of saying that I think it’s time for Al Gore to relax just a little bit and back away from making outrageous claims as he did on his recent trip to Sweden with EU Commissioner Margot Wallstrom.

In response to a question about whether he felt the upcoming report by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be enough to convince people of “the truth” about climate change, Gore responded, “The existence of global warming…now has a consensus very nearly as firm as that behind gravity.”

Whoa. Are you serious?! Because, I haven’t really heard of one, let alone 60 or 12,000 credentialed scientists signing a petition questioning gravity.

The sheer volume of the debate going on in the press is enough to invalidate the qualifying “very nearly” that Gore attached to the statement.

This kind of baseless assertion does nothing to help bolster the case for climate change to reasonable moderates looking for evidential backing. In fact, I would argue, it does precisely the opposite. It shows up Al Gore for the extremist that he is.

Gore would do well to tone down the excessive oratory and spend a little more time gathering and presenting a well-reasoned case.

global warming, climate change, Sweden, Gore, Wallstrom, gravity, consensus

Of course, that may be just because I agree with a lot of what she says…

Paglia, writing for Salon.com, decided to take questions from readers on a wide variety of topics. Not surprisingly, one of those questions dealt with the topic of global warming.

Many of the points she made in the article are reasonable and yet, nonetheless, have triggered a vituperative string of comments in reply. To gauge how much of a hot button issue global warming is, you need only look at the number of comments generated by Paglia’s article compared to other front page Salon.com articles. As I write this, comments on her article are running about three times those on most other topics.

Among Paglia’s comments are a few that, in any other arena, would seem measured but, in the highly-charged environment surrounding climate change, are greeted with a hostility that is more appropriately associated with Salem in 1692.

Some of those comments:

“I have been highly suspicious for years about the political agenda that has slowly accrued around this issue.”

“From my perspective, virtually all of the major claims about global warming and its causes still remain to be proved.”

“When Gore told a congressional hearing last month that there is a universal consensus among scientists about global warming — which is blatantly untrue — he forfeited his own credibility.”

Paglia noted, at the start of her answer, “Oh, great, here comes the hornet’s nest!”

She was right. I’m just not sure she envisioned how much of a buzz she’d stir up.

global warming, climate change, political agenda, Gore, Camille Paglia, extreme weather, credibility, Paglia, Salon.com

One of the things I hope to do here at the ET blog is to create a forum where we can have a reasoned and nuanced approach to the whole global warming debate.

Oh, and if we have time, we’ll bring peace to the Middle East and solve the abortion issue, too.

There is a good chance it may not be possible to have a thoughtful discussion on global warming at this point. We’ll give it a shot anyway.

Both sides seem to be so polarized at this point and so quick to ratchet up the rhetoric that most discussions on the topic sounds more like a sports call-in show than any kind of scientific debate.

I like a good spaghetti fight as much as the next person and I promise to do my part to skewer the pompous and ridiculous proponents on both sides. You’d expect nothing less from an blog that shares the same initials as Entertainment Tonight.

I’ll be throwing out the ceremonial first pitch later today. Just so you’re ready, it’ll be high and inside.

Just like I was when I wrote it . . .